Momentum — Who Controls the Session, How Firmly, and How the Move Is Resolving

Read from one-minute index bars whatever timeframe the chart is on, and claiming only what testing on 42 stored sessions per index supported. The Bias says who controls the session: the side of VWAP price holds, where control changes hands only after closes have stayed more than 1.5 ATR past VWAP on the other side for 20 minutes in a row. While that clock runs the bias reads contested -- on a range day the swings across VWAP show as contests that come back, not as flips (25 September: control changed hands three times, where an instant rule flipped eight). Each bias carries a strength grade and a pressure word. Strong means price is 4 ATR or more past VWAP with VWAP not turning against the side; weak means under 2 ATR or VWAP turning; moderate is between. Pushing or being tested says whether the last five minutes run with the side or against it. The grade measured whether control was still there an hour later -- strong 97% on both indices, moderate 85-88%, weak 58-72%, and a contested side only 21-30% -- and did not measure price going further, which stayed at about a coin flip in every grade; the panel says so. Before any futures volume exists there is no VWAP, and the 30-minute move stands in under the same hold. The Move is any run of 2 ATR or more in five minutes, tagged with or against the bias. Whether it will last cannot be read at the moment it happens; the Stage follows how it resolves: fading when it is still going but has slowed for three minutes running (on NIFTY followed by a pullback 67% of the time, the one forecast here, also marked with an arrow; on SENSEX only 55%, so there it is shown as a state without the warning), given back when a close gives back more than half of it, held so far when ten minutes on it has kept most of the move, otherwise unconfirmed. Nothing is read before 09:30 or from 15:15, when the index prints flat bars.