Chart Indicators — Derivatives Positioning — What the Options Are Pricing
Derivatives Positioning — What the Options Are Pricing
The candles say where the index has been; OI Walls says where the positioning sits. Neither says what the options are CHARGING for the move ahead, and that can disagree with both. This is one legend line, no drawing: the put-call ratio across the chain, at-the-money implied volatility, the ATM straddle as the market's own estimate of the move to expiry, the theta burning out of that estimate per day, and the days remaining. Every figure comes from the same 1-minute option-chain feed the walls read. It previously rolled up a PCR label, whether the walls were building or easing, and the distance from max pain -- but the first two of those were read from the pre-market row and never moved all session (on 21 September the real PCR crossed its bullish threshold around midday and this line never noticed), and the wall note measured change against the PREVIOUS session's close while OI Walls measures it against this session's open, so the two indicators could contradict each other one line apart in the same legend.
| Element | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| PCR | Put open interest over call open interest, whole chain | Above 1.3 put-heavy, below 0.8 call-heavy |
| IV | At-the-money implied volatility | What the market is charging for risk today |
| Expected move | The at-the-money straddle price | The market's own estimate of the move to expiry, either way |
| Theta | Straddle theta | What holding that estimate costs per day |
| Days to expiry | Nearest expiry against the trade date | Every figure above is relative to it |