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Chart Indicators — Derivatives Positioning — What the Options Are Pricing

Derivatives Positioning — What the Options Are Pricing

The candles say where the index has been; OI Walls says where the positioning sits. Neither says what the options are CHARGING for the move ahead, and that can disagree with both. This is one legend line, no drawing: the put-call ratio across the chain, at-the-money implied volatility, the ATM straddle as the market's own estimate of the move to expiry, the theta burning out of that estimate per day, and the days remaining. Every figure comes from the same 1-minute option-chain feed the walls read. It previously rolled up a PCR label, whether the walls were building or easing, and the distance from max pain -- but the first two of those were read from the pre-market row and never moved all session (on 21 September the real PCR crossed its bullish threshold around midday and this line never noticed), and the wall note measured change against the PREVIOUS session's close while OI Walls measures it against this session's open, so the two indicators could contradict each other one line apart in the same legend.

Derivatives Positioning — What the Options Are Pricing — parameters
ElementSourceNotes
PCRPut open interest over call open interest, whole chainAbove 1.3 put-heavy, below 0.8 call-heavy
IVAt-the-money implied volatilityWhat the market is charging for risk today
Expected moveThe at-the-money straddle priceThe market's own estimate of the move to expiry, either way
ThetaStraddle thetaWhat holding that estimate costs per day
Days to expiryNearest expiry against the trade dateEvery figure above is relative to it