Weekly carry · NIFTY · held overnight
NIFTY Weekly Strangle ₹40 Rejected
Rejected. Rejected: the ₹15 weekly strangle earned about as much with a third of the drawdown. +₹1,08,809 net over 104 trades (2024-09-26 to 2026-09-29, 65 quantity), 77% win rate, max drawdown −₹54,870, 27.1% a year on ₹2,00,000 capital, after all costs and slippage.
Data to · page updated
Payoff
Illustrated with NIFTY at 25,000: sell 25400 CE at ₹40, sell 24600 PE at ₹40. Sold at 09:20 on the first session of the week and held to expiry: 25400 CE + 24600 PE, ~₹40 each (~1.5% / 1.6% from spot, typical over the 2 years).
How it trades
- Week: every NIFTY weekly expiry (Tuesday; Thursday before Sep 2025), including holiday weeks.
- Wednesday 09:20 (first session after the last expiry; in a holiday week the first real session, Muhurat evening skipped): sell the OTM call and put each priced closest to ₹40 (e.g. 25400 CE + 24600 PE with NIFTY at 25,000; ≈₹80 × 65 = ₹5,200 credit). Strikes picked on the 09:19 prices.
- Hold Wednesday → Tuesday, including the weekend. No stop-loss, no take-profit, no adjustment.
- Tuesday 15:00: close both legs at market.
- Size: 1 lot (65 qty) per leg, ≈₹2L margin. Costs: Zerodha-style charges and 0.5 point slippage on every fill.
Year 1 vs year 2
| Period | Trades | Net P&L | Return (₹2,00,000) | Win rate | Profit factor | Max drawdown | Worst week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 (to 2025-09-30) | 52 | +₹46,703 | 23.4% | 77% | 1.33 | −₹54,870 | −₹24,546 |
| Year 2 (test) | 52 | +₹62,106 | 31.1% | 77% | 1.52 | −₹26,470 | −₹26,440 |
| Both years | 104 | +₹1,08,809 | 54.4% | 77% | 1.42 | −₹54,870 | −₹26,440 |
Cumulative P&L
The cumulative P&L ends at +₹1,08,809 after 104 trades. Its high was +₹1,35,279 (2026-08-25); the deepest fall from a high was −₹54,870, from 2025-03-13 to 2025-05-15. Best week: +₹5,533 (2025-12-16); worst week: −₹26,440 (2026-09-29).
P&L by quarter
| Quarter | Jan–Mar | Apr–Jun | Jul–Sep | Oct–Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net P&L | +₹34,389 | +₹13,345 | +₹30,897 | +₹30,178 |
Every trade
104 trades
| Expiry | Exit | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-03 | Held to expiry | −₹21,007 |
| 2024-10-10 | Held to expiry | +₹5,108 |
| 2024-10-17 | Held to expiry | +₹4,722 |
| 2024-10-24 | Held to expiry | +₹4,926 |
| 2024-10-31 | Held to expiry | +₹5,150 |
| 2024-11-07 | Held to expiry | +₹5,091 |
| 2024-11-14 | Held to expiry | +₹3,527 |
| 2024-11-21 | Held to expiry | +₹5,273 |
| 2024-11-28 | Held to expiry | −₹1,730 |
| 2024-12-05 | Held to expiry | −₹312 |
| 2024-12-12 | Held to expiry | +₹5,033 |
| 2024-12-19 | Held to expiry | +₹1,275 |
| 2025-01-02 | Held to expiry | +₹4,545 |
| 2025-01-09 | Held to expiry | −₹4,363 |
| 2025-01-16 | Held to expiry | +₹5,059 |
| 2025-01-23 | Held to expiry | +₹4,702 |
| 2025-01-30 | Held to expiry | +₹5,153 |
| 2025-02-06 | Held to expiry | +₹4,871 |
| 2025-02-13 | Held to expiry | +₹4,345 |
| 2025-02-20 | Held to expiry | +₹4,883 |
| 2025-02-27 | Held to expiry | +₹5,224 |
| 2025-03-06 | Held to expiry | +₹4,806 |
| 2025-03-13 | Held to expiry | +₹5,075 |
| 2025-03-20 | Held to expiry | −₹24,546 |
| 2025-03-27 | Held to expiry | −₹2,197 |
| 2025-04-03 | Held to expiry | +₹4,597 |
| 2025-04-09 | Held to expiry | −₹11,448 |
| 2025-04-17 | Held to expiry | −₹18,065 |
| 2025-04-24 | Held to expiry | +₹4,754 |
| 2025-04-30 | Held to expiry | +₹4,819 |
| 2025-05-08 | Held to expiry | +₹4,699 |
| 2025-05-15 | Held to expiry | −₹17,483 |
| 2025-05-22 | Held to expiry | +₹4,958 |
| 2025-05-29 | Held to expiry | +₹4,942 |
| 2025-06-05 | Held to expiry | +₹5,069 |
| 2025-06-12 | Held to expiry | +₹4,994 |
| 2025-06-19 | Held to expiry | +₹4,848 |
| 2025-06-26 | Held to expiry | −₹14,244 |
| 2025-07-03 | Held to expiry | +₹4,770 |
| 2025-07-10 | Held to expiry | +₹5,137 |
| 2025-07-17 | Held to expiry | +₹4,777 |
| 2025-07-24 | Held to expiry | +₹5,176 |
| 2025-07-31 | Held to expiry | +₹4,825 |
| 2025-08-07 | Held to expiry | +₹4,952 |
| 2025-08-14 | Held to expiry | +₹5,134 |
| 2025-08-21 | Held to expiry | +₹5,192 |
| 2025-08-28 | Held to expiry | −₹13,727 |
| 2025-09-02 | Held to expiry | +₹4,942 |
| 2025-09-09 | Held to expiry | +₹1,505 |
| 2025-09-16 | Held to expiry | +₹4,360 |
| 2025-09-23 | Held to expiry | +₹4,715 |
| 2025-09-30 | Held to expiry | −₹12,108 |
| 2025-10-07 | Held to expiry | −₹10,544 |
| 2025-10-14 | Held to expiry | +₹4,407 |
| 2025-10-20 | Held to expiry | −₹16,095 |
| 2025-10-28 | Held to expiry | +₹5,007 |
| 2025-11-04 | Held to expiry | −₹1,057 |
| 2025-11-11 | Held to expiry | +₹5,088 |
| 2025-11-18 | Held to expiry | +₹5,283 |
| 2025-11-25 | Held to expiry | +₹5,332 |
| 2025-12-02 | Held to expiry | +₹4,939 |
| 2025-12-09 | Held to expiry | +₹4,829 |
| 2025-12-16 | Held to expiry | +₹5,533 |
| 2025-12-23 | Held to expiry | +₹2,247 |
| 2025-12-30 | Held to expiry | −₹1,847 |
| 2026-01-06 | Held to expiry | +₹4,387 |
| 2026-01-13 | Held to expiry | −₹10,288 |
| 2026-01-20 | Held to expiry | +₹2,247 |
| 2026-01-27 | Held to expiry | +₹4,689 |
| 2026-02-03 | Held to expiry | +₹4,812 |
| 2026-02-10 | Held to expiry | +₹4,972 |
| 2026-02-17 | Held to expiry | +₹2,815 |
| 2026-02-24 | Held to expiry | +₹4,276 |
| 2026-03-02 | Held to expiry | −₹20,692 |
| 2026-03-10 | Held to expiry | +₹5,014 |
| 2026-03-17 | Held to expiry | +₹4,819 |
| 2026-03-24 | Held to expiry | +₹5,001 |
| 2026-03-30 | Held to expiry | +₹4,780 |
| 2026-04-07 | Held to expiry | +₹4,864 |
| 2026-04-13 | Held to expiry | +₹4,942 |
| 2026-04-21 | Held to expiry | +₹4,819 |
| 2026-04-28 | Held to expiry | +₹5,020 |
| 2026-05-05 | Held to expiry | +₹5,118 |
| 2026-05-12 | Held to expiry | −₹13,220 |
| 2026-05-19 | Held to expiry | +₹4,783 |
| 2026-05-26 | Held to expiry | +₹4,738 |
| 2026-06-02 | Held to expiry | +₹1,102 |
| 2026-06-09 | Held to expiry | +₹5,105 |
| 2026-06-16 | Held to expiry | −₹6,828 |
| 2026-06-23 | Held to expiry | +₹5,270 |
| 2026-06-30 | Held to expiry | +₹5,192 |
| 2026-07-07 | Held to expiry | −₹1,889 |
| 2026-07-14 | Held to expiry | +₹4,423 |
| 2026-07-21 | Held to expiry | +₹4,910 |
| 2026-07-28 | Held to expiry | +₹5,338 |
| 2026-08-04 | Held to expiry | +₹1,076 |
| 2026-08-11 | Held to expiry | +₹4,400 |
| 2026-08-18 | Held to expiry | +₹4,400 |
| 2026-08-25 | Held to expiry | +₹5,059 |
| 2026-09-01 | Held to expiry | −₹8,824 |
| 2026-09-08 | Held to expiry | +₹4,503 |
| 2026-09-15 | Held to expiry | −₹826 |
| 2026-09-22 | Held to expiry | +₹5,117 |
| 2026-09-29 | Held to expiry | −₹26,440 |
What is a weekly Nifty strangle held to expiry?
A weekly carry sells an out-of-the-money call and put early in the week and holds them, overnight and over the weekend, until the weekly expiry. Most of the premium decays in the last few sessions, which is what the strategy collects.
This version: Wednesday 09:20 (first session after the last expiry; in a holiday week the first real session, Muhurat evening skipped): sell the OTM call and put each priced closest to ₹40 (e.g. 25400 CE + 24600 PE with NIFTY at 25,000; ≈₹80 × 65 = ₹5,200 credit). Strikes picked on the 09:19 prices.
NIFTY Weekly Strangle ₹40 backtest results
Over 104 trades from 2024-09-26 to 2026-09-29 at 65 quantity, the NIFTY weekly strangle ₹40 returned +₹1,08,809 after brokerage, taxes and slippage: +₹46,703 in year 1 and +₹62,106 in year 2. It won 77% of trades, had a profit factor of 1.42 and a worst drawdown of −₹54,870. That is 27.1% a year on an estimated ₹2,00,000 of capital.
The year 1 figure is the period the rules were looked at; year 2 is the test. If a strategy works in year 1 and fails in year 2, it was probably fitted to the past.
What drives the result
Weekly carry wins most weeks by a small amount and loses rarely but heavily, when Nifty moves several percent in a week. Over the two years tested Nifty fell about 12.6%, which favoured the short-call side, so part of the result reflects that market rather than premium alone.
Risks of holding a short strangle overnight
An overnight gap can open far beyond a strike, and with no stop the loss is only limited at expiry. Capital assumed is about ₹2,00,000.
Frequently asked questions
Is the NIFTY weekly strangle ₹40 profitable?
In this two-year backtest it made money in both years: +₹46,703 in year 1 and +₹62,106 in year 2, +₹1,08,809 in total after costs at 65 quantity, with a 77% win rate. Past results do not guarantee future returns.
How much capital does the NIFTY weekly strangle ₹40 need?
About ₹2,00,000 for 65 quantity is assumed here. Actual broker margin changes with the index level and volatility.
Does it use a stop-loss?
No stop-loss: positions are held to the exit time or expiry.
Does it hold positions overnight?
Yes. Positions are carried across sessions until expiry, so overnight gap risk is part of the result.
How was this backtest done?
On 1-minute prices of expired NIFTY option contracts from 2024-09-26 to 2026-09-29 (two years), with brokerage, STT, exchange charges, SEBI fee, stamp duty, GST and 0.5 point slippage per fill, and every exit filled at the next minute's price.
Related on MarketCue
Backtest on historical data, not a live track record and not advice. Options can lose more than the premium collected. MarketCue is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser. See the disclaimer.