Pay after confirmation · round 2 · C3
Confirm, then buy No edge
Once the index has already moved by more than the straddle price, does it keep going? Over 76 trades on NIFTY and SENSEX weekly options (2024-10-03 to 2026-10-01), Confirm, then buy made ₹215 net after brokerage, taxes and slippage: 29% win rate, profit factor 1.00, max drawdown ₹28,630. Year 1 −₹25,516, year 2 +₹25,731. Verdict: no edge.
Flat noise: buying with the move and buying against it give about the same tiny results.
NIFTY and SENSEX weekly options · 1 lot, after costs and slippage · data to · page updated
How it trades
- From 09:30 to 11:30 wait for the index to move from its 09:20 level by more than the 09:20 ATM straddle price, in points.
- On the next minute buy the ATM option in the direction of the move: a call after a rise, a put after a fall.
- Control: at the same minute buy the opposite option (a fade).
- Exit. Trailing stop 30% below the highest close since entry, otherwise out at 15:15.
Did it pass the bar?
- ✓ Profit in year 2
- ✗ Profit factor above 1.3
- ✓ At least 40 trades
- ✗ Beats its baseline per trade
- ✗ Profit in all four index and year cells
A strategy has to clear every line. Year 1 ends 2025-09-30; year 2 is the unseen test.
Results by index and exit rule
| Run | Trades | Win rate | Net P&L | Per trade | Profit factor | Max drawdown | Year 1 | Year 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both indices · Trailing stop (designed) | 76 | 29% | +₹215 | +₹3 | 1.00 | −₹28,630 | −₹25,516 | +₹25,731 |
| NIFTY · Trailing stop (designed) | 36 | 22% | −₹3,987 | −₹111 | 0.90 | −₹24,455 | −₹1,097 | −₹2,890 |
| SENSEX · Trailing stop (designed) | 40 | 35% | +₹4,202 | +₹105 | 1.10 | −₹24,599 | −₹24,419 | +₹28,621 |
| Both indices · Held to 15:15 (sensitivity) | 76 | 34% | +₹13,083 | +₹172 | 1.08 | −₹32,174 | +₹3,361 | +₹9,722 |
| NIFTY · Held to 15:15 (sensitivity) | 36 | 33% | +₹15,970 | +₹444 | 1.21 | −₹25,758 | +₹6,421 | +₹9,549 |
| SENSEX · Held to 15:15 (sensitivity) | 40 | 35% | −₹2,887 | −₹72 | 0.97 | −₹29,207 | −₹3,060 | +₹173 |
Against its control
| Run (both indices) | Trades | Win rate | Net P&L | Per trade | Profit factor | Max drawdown | Year 1 | Year 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confirm, then buy (this strategy) | 76 | 29% | +₹215 | +₹3 | 1.00 | −₹28,630 | −₹25,516 | +₹25,731 |
| Control: buy against the move | 76 | 34% | +₹24,783 | +₹326 | 1.39 | −₹9,615 | +₹18,784 | +₹5,999 |
| Half-size trigger, with the move | 369 | 26% | −₹1,20,759 | −₹327 | 0.69 | −₹1,51,193 | −₹1,16,298 | −₹4,461 |
| Half-size trigger, against the move | 369 | 25% | −₹95,655 | −₹259 | 0.75 | −₹1,24,371 | −₹64,663 | −₹30,992 |
Cumulative P&L
Best trade +₹20,281 (NIFTY, 2025-04-17); worst trade −₹3,880 (SENSEX, 2024-10-21).
What it tells us
Continuation is roughly break-even, and the fade control looks just as good, with the lead flipping depending on the exit rule. There is no sign of a directional edge.
Loosening the trigger to half the straddle price gives 369 trades and a clear loss, so the small positive figures do not hold up.
- 76 trades is small and the best figures are tens to a few hundred rupees a trade, about the size of slippage and charges.
How trades ended
| Exit | Trades | Share | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| trail | 71 | 93% | −₹55,099 |
| time | 5 | 7% | +₹55,314 |
Results by month
| Month | Trades | Win rate | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 4 | 0% | −₹9,946 |
| 2024-11 | 6 | 17% | −₹7,767 |
| 2024-12 | 1 | 100% | +₹1,589 |
| 2025-01 | 5 | 40% | +₹982 |
| 2025-02 | 2 | 0% | −₹2,510 |
| 2025-03 | 3 | 67% | −₹541 |
| 2025-04 | 8 | 13% | +₹10,168 |
| 2025-05 | 4 | 0% | −₹9,006 |
| 2025-06 | 4 | 0% | −₹6,006 |
| 2025-07 | 3 | 33% | +₹1,838 |
| 2025-08 | 2 | 50% | −₹869 |
| 2025-09 | 4 | 0% | −₹3,448 |
| 2025-10 | 4 | 25% | −₹2,283 |
| 2025-11 | 3 | 67% | +₹1,914 |
| 2025-12 | 1 | 100% | +₹777 |
| 2026-01 | 4 | 50% | +₹2,776 |
| 2026-02 | 2 | 50% | +₹16,388 |
| 2026-03 | 4 | 50% | +₹4,824 |
| 2026-04 | 5 | 20% | −₹5,408 |
| 2026-05 | 1 | 100% | +₹790 |
| 2026-06 | 2 | 50% | +₹796 |
| 2026-07 | 1 | 0% | −₹1,767 |
| 2026-08 | 1 | 0% | −₹113 |
| 2026-09 | 2 | 50% | +₹7,037 |
Every trade (76)
| Date | Index | Exit | Premium | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-04 | SENSEX | trail | ₹6,967 | −₹1,812 |
| 2024-10-17 | NIFTY | trail | ₹2,984 | −₹1,069 |
| 2024-10-21 | NIFTY | trail | ₹10,095 | −₹3,185 |
| 2024-10-21 | SENSEX | trail | ₹15,311 | −₹3,880 |
| 2024-11-07 | NIFTY | trail | ₹3,562 | +₹1,793 |
| 2024-11-07 | SENSEX | trail | ₹6,931 | −₹1,428 |
| 2024-11-22 | SENSEX | trail | ₹7,565 | −₹2,038 |
| 2024-11-28 | NIFTY | trail | ₹6,620 | −₹2,186 |
| 2024-11-28 | SENSEX | trail | ₹8,113 | −₹2,682 |
| 2024-11-29 | SENSEX | trail | ₹3,736 | −₹1,226 |
| 2024-12-13 | SENSEX | trail | ₹5,256 | +₹1,589 |
| 2025-01-03 | SENSEX | trail | ₹3,019 | −₹1,225 |
| 2025-01-06 | NIFTY | trail | ₹11,967 | +₹21 |
| 2025-01-06 | SENSEX | trail | ₹8,040 | +₹3,897 |
| 2025-01-21 | SENSEX | trail | ₹7,388 | −₹385 |
| 2025-01-23 | NIFTY | trail | ₹3,595 | −₹1,326 |
| 2025-02-06 | NIFTY | trail | ₹2,480 | −₹860 |
| 2025-02-12 | NIFTY | trail | ₹5,116 | −₹1,650 |
| 2025-03-03 | SENSEX | trail | ₹4,948 | +₹46 |
| 2025-03-06 | NIFTY | trail | ₹5,350 | +₹517 |
| 2025-03-18 | SENSEX | trail | ₹5,606 | −₹1,104 |
| 2025-04-01 | SENSEX | trail | ₹4,376 | −₹591 |
| 2025-04-08 | SENSEX | trail | ₹6,813 | −₹1,404 |
| 2025-04-17 | NIFTY | time | ₹5,671 | +₹20,281 |
| 2025-04-22 | SENSEX | trail | ₹1,744 | −₹648 |
| 2025-04-23 | NIFTY | trail | ₹5,886 | −₹2,116 |
| 2025-04-25 | NIFTY | trail | ₹12,054 | −₹1,825 |
| 2025-04-25 | SENSEX | trail | ₹12,157 | −₹2,132 |
| 2025-04-29 | SENSEX | trail | ₹4,229 | −₹1,397 |
| 2025-05-15 | NIFTY | trail | ₹6,494 | −₹3,006 |
| 2025-05-20 | SENSEX | trail | ₹3,953 | −₹1,078 |
| 2025-05-23 | SENSEX | trail | ₹12,039 | −₹3,724 |
| 2025-05-29 | NIFTY | trail | ₹2,980 | −₹1,198 |
| 2025-06-05 | NIFTY | trail | ₹4,232 | −₹1,743 |
| 2025-06-12 | NIFTY | trail | ₹3,705 | −₹1,044 |
| 2025-06-24 | SENSEX | trail | ₹5,238 | −₹2,335 |
| 2025-06-26 | NIFTY | trail | ₹5,057 | −₹884 |
| 2025-07-10 | NIFTY | trail | ₹2,116 | −₹879 |
| 2025-07-15 | SENSEX | trail | ₹3,179 | −₹1,042 |
| 2025-07-24 | NIFTY | trail | ₹2,217 | +₹3,759 |
| 2025-08-07 | NIFTY | trail | ₹2,649 | −₹1,049 |
| 2025-08-12 | SENSEX | trail | ₹3,162 | +₹180 |
| 2025-09-02 | NIFTY | trail | ₹2,265 | −₹821 |
| 2025-09-05 | NIFTY | trail | ₹5,876 | −₹1,298 |
| 2025-09-23 | NIFTY | trail | ₹3,140 | −₹426 |
| 2025-09-30 | NIFTY | trail | ₹3,156 | −₹903 |
| 2025-10-01 | SENSEX | trail | ₹2,242 | +₹1,897 |
| 2025-10-07 | NIFTY | trail | ₹3,188 | −₹1,124 |
| 2025-10-14 | NIFTY | trail | ₹4,082 | −₹1,022 |
| 2025-10-17 | NIFTY | trail | ₹7,098 | −₹2,034 |
| 2025-11-06 | SENSEX | trail | ₹3,703 | −₹738 |
| 2025-11-13 | SENSEX | trail | ₹2,557 | +₹245 |
| 2025-11-26 | SENSEX | time | ₹5,593 | +₹2,407 |
| 2025-12-04 | SENSEX | trail | ₹2,470 | +₹777 |
| 2026-01-08 | SENSEX | trail | ₹1,223 | +₹4,043 |
| 2026-01-13 | NIFTY | trail | ₹3,611 | −₹1,664 |
| 2026-01-20 | NIFTY | trail | ₹4,222 | −₹1,574 |
| 2026-01-21 | SENSEX | trail | ₹5,616 | +₹1,971 |
| 2026-02-17 | NIFTY | trail | ₹4,157 | −₹1,340 |
| 2026-02-19 | SENSEX | time | ₹3,596 | +₹17,728 |
| 2026-03-11 | SENSEX | time | ₹9,450 | +₹6,766 |
| 2026-03-12 | SENSEX | trail | ₹5,783 | −₹2,019 |
| 2026-03-17 | NIFTY | trail | ₹4,989 | −₹1,420 |
| 2026-03-25 | SENSEX | trail | ₹4,838 | +₹1,497 |
| 2026-04-09 | SENSEX | trail | ₹5,135 | −₹1,542 |
| 2026-04-13 | NIFTY | trail | ₹4,199 | +₹393 |
| 2026-04-16 | SENSEX | trail | ₹4,457 | −₹1,406 |
| 2026-04-29 | SENSEX | trail | ₹7,162 | −₹1,587 |
| 2026-04-30 | SENSEX | trail | ₹4,000 | −₹1,266 |
| 2026-05-12 | NIFTY | trail | ₹3,344 | +₹790 |
| 2026-06-09 | NIFTY | trail | ₹2,636 | −₹932 |
| 2026-06-11 | SENSEX | trail | ₹3,460 | +₹1,728 |
| 2026-07-09 | SENSEX | trail | ₹3,259 | −₹1,767 |
| 2026-08-27 | SENSEX | trail | ₹1,672 | −₹113 |
| 2026-09-01 | NIFTY | trail | ₹2,958 | −₹1,095 |
| 2026-09-15 | NIFTY | time | ₹4,856 | +₹8,132 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Confirm, then buy option-buying strategy?
Once the index has already moved by more than the straddle price, does it keep going? From 09:30 to 11:30 wait for the index to move from its 09:20 level by more than the 09:20 ATM straddle price, in points. On the next minute buy the ATM option in the direction of the move: a call after a rise, a put after a fall. Control: at the same minute buy the opposite option (a fade). Exit: Trailing stop 30% below the highest close since entry, otherwise out at 15:15.
Did the Confirm, then buy strategy make money on NIFTY and SENSEX?
Over 76 trades on NIFTY and SENSEX weekly options (2024-10-03 to 2026-10-01), Confirm, then buy made ₹215 net after brokerage, taxes and slippage: 29% win rate, profit factor 1.00, max drawdown ₹28,630. Year 1 −₹25,516, year 2 +₹25,731. Verdict: no edge. NIFTY alone: −₹3,987 over 36 trades. SENSEX alone: +₹4,202 over 40 trades. Year 1 ends 2025-09-30; year 2 is the unseen test.
What does the backtest of Confirm, then buy show?
Flat noise: buying with the move and buying against it give about the same tiny results. Continuation is roughly break-even, and the fade control looks just as good, with the lead flipping depending on the exit rule. There is no sign of a directional edge.
Is Confirm, then buy a recommendation to trade?
No. It is a backtest on historical data at trailing stop exits, one lot, intraday, and it did not pass the bar MarketCue set for it. Options buying can lose the whole premium paid. MarketCue is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser.
Backtest on historical data, not a live track record and not advice. Options trading can lose the whole premium paid. MarketCue is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser. See the disclaimer.